Electability in the Red Haze, Part 1

Evaluating Republican presidential possibilities: Sitting governors

In the lead-up to the 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, with incumbent President Trump highly likely to be renominated, I explored the question of how electable the crowded field of potential Democratic contenders was in a series of articles I posted on Medium. (See, in particular, 1 2 3). Today, with incumbent President Biden highly likely to be renominated, I am taking my first look at the Republican field of 2024. This will be a series; subscribe if you want to make sure to catch future installments.

In this first installment, I’ll consider the current sitting Republican governors that are thought likely to make a bid for the presidency, and present the basic quantitative evidence that suggests which ones are more likely to succeed.

I’m starting with sitting governors because they are the most common non-incumbent candidate, and are more likely to succeed than senators; if a Republican president is elected in 2024, it will most likely be a current or former governor.

Which Republican governors might be running for president?

There are 26 Republican governors. One, Ron DeSantis of Florida, is expected to file for candidacy shortly. Two others, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Kristi Noem, have publicly expressed interest in running for president.