Electability & the blue bubble

This article was initially written early in October 2019. Notably, Beto O’Rourke dropped out shortly afterwards.

I’ve been following the pre-primary process closely as Democratic candidates work the ground in Iowa & other states in preparation for the primary elections. I’ve also been thinking a lot about the issue of electability, and potential mistakes being made by Democrat-friendly media outlets.

So. First, I’m going to talk a little bit about how I’m seeing the primary talked about in blue media, ranging from wonkish (e.g., FiveThirtyEight) to mainstream (e.g., MSNBC, Washington Post, NPR). Second, I’m going to talk about electability and what evidence we have available. Third, I’m going to tie together the separate pieces of evidence and say what it means about candidates’ electability.

“Top ten” candidates by DNC debate criteria. Images public domain except Yang photo, which is by Gage Skidmore and used under Creative Commons, from here.

Right now, with impeachment hearings underway, the election environment is very difficult to predict in advance. The 1976 and 2000 elections were both quite close. Impeachment could backfire on Democrats; it could sink the Republicans; it could also trigger one of the periodic breakdowns of the two-party system and lead to a highly unpredictable three or four candidate race. Any of the candidates might win or lose if nominated. In a certain sense, every candidate is electable.

It’s also worth keeping in mind that the popularity of a presidential candidate can also have effects downballot. 11 governors, 35 senators, 435 representatives, and 89 state legislative chambers in 46 different states will be elected in 2020. The stakes are even higher because 2020 is a census year; the state governments in place after the 2020 election will determine how districts are drawn in the wake of the decennial census. Winning the presidency isn’t the only thing that matters in choosing a presidential candidate.

There are nineteen major candidates in the race, by some accountings; this is a big field. One candidate is a governor, two served in the Obama administration, six are sitting senators, five others have had experience in Congress, and five are wild card candidates with a thin political resume.