Well, 1992 to the present is a shorter segment than the era of the “Solid South.” From 1880 to 1944, the former Confederate states were all much more Democratic than the rest of the country in every presidential election. In 1948, there was a small warning sign in Strom Thurmond’s run for president.

Then, very quickly, this happened:

1956 vs 1964

It can be very hard to predict the future. I don’t know when, or if, New York will go back to being a swing state.