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The Veepstakes
A mathematician’s thoughts on a political and historical problem
It appears very likely that either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders will be the next Democratic presidential nominee. Actuarial tables suggest that if either is inaugurated, they have about a 1 in 6 chance of dying by the end of their first term in office; in addition to death, incapacity or disability is also a major concern.
The stakes attached to the vice presidency have never been this obviously high. My advice would be caution: The most important role of the vice presidential nominee is to step into the presidential nominees’ shoes. Trust that voters understand that.
Choosing a running mate in order to appease a disgruntled political faction — either a different faction of the same political party, or voters outside of the political party — has little positive electoral impact. It may even have a negative impact, as voters do not trust politicians who are clearly pandering insincerely. It’s also reckless.
The vice president on the campaign trail
Selecting the right running mate for the campaign trail drives a lot of vice presidential selections. The factors that go into deciding what vice president will help win votes can be divided into three categories.