New York: Emperor of the Electoral College

A popular myth of the moment is that the Electoral College prevents New York from deciding presidential elections. This myth is built around the fact that at the moment, New York happens not to be a battleground state.

There are two traits that make a state an important battleground: Being close to evenly divided between supporters of the two major political parties and being large. In general, about half of the large states are battleground states.

1976 presidential election illustrated. New York was the critical state. (Image modified from source.)

The historical truth of the matter is that New York has decided more presidential elections than any other state. Over the history of the country (particularly from 1828 to 1976) New York has generally been the most important state to win in a presidential election. This was because New York has always been large, and has usually been closely divided between the parties.

Instead of preventing New York from deciding elections, the Electoral College helps New York decide elections. The distortions in power between different states caused by the Electoral College have been favorable to New York.

New York has been the tipping point state more often than any other state. New York has been critical for the winning candidate more often than any other state, and it’s been very hard to win a presidential election without winning New York. Because of the…