I would not say so.

For example, states with under 10 electoral votes have provided 24% of the total presidential electorate from 1828 to 2016.

Out of those 48 elections, however, the tipping point state was under 10 electoral votes only 9 times (19%).

Out of the 11 elections where the election was close enough for the tipping point state to also be critical (i.e., essential), the tipping point state has only been under 10 electoral votes once — in 1876 (9%).

Most of the ways I’ve tried to measure historical power for the states in the Electoral College points towards the smaller states mattering *more* in a popular vote. Large states are more likely to be close to the political center, and larger blocs of votes are disproportionately more powerful.