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Electability in the Red Haze, part 2

Donald Trump is no Grover Cleveland

Tomas McIntee
8 min readMar 4, 2023

In the first installment, I talked about some of the Republican candidates who are least linked to the last Republican presidential administration: Current sitting governors. Next, I’ll start looking at the Republicans who served in the Trump administration and seem likely to run.

From left to right, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, and John Bolton, who have all indicated they will run for president in 2024.

The Trump White House played host to five people who are seen as likely presidential contenders. This includes the former president himself, the former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (who officially announced her candidacy on February 14th), former Secretary of State Mike Pomeo, and former National Security Advisor John Bolton.

In this piece, I’ll discuss the electability of these candidates using a composite measure, similar to how I did it in part 1 of this series. In this installment, I’ll add some discussion of the background of candidates, using insights that I’ve picked up about past presidential elections from the research I did for my book on the Electoral College. (If you haven’t picked it up yet, you should — it’s a good book, if I say so myself.)

Donald Trump

While incumbent presidents generally have an advantage in running for re-election, former presidents trying to return for a non-consecutive…

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Tomas McIntee
Tomas McIntee

Written by Tomas McIntee

Dr. Tomas McIntee is a mathematician and occasional social scientist with stray degrees in physics and philosophy.

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