Analyzing the new North Carolina map from a nonpartisan perspective

The North Carolina General Assembly recently passed a new Congressional district map. While it happened, I was following very regular and map-filled updates on the topic from Stephen Wolf, a Daily Kos elections expert. He has done a partisan analysis of the map, forecasting a likely 8–5 split.

The map passed by the NC GA, which will be in effect for the upcoming 2020 congressional elections.

It’s worth noting, first, that when the map breaks county lines, there are some cases in which it makes districts less compact. It’s necessary to divide some counties in order to make district populations exactly match, but it’s possible to do this in ways that make districts more, rather than less, compact. For example, there is a very odd S-shaped boundary cutting through Chatham and Lee counties, and Pitt County is cut through the middle by a boundary that wiggles back and forth like a snake.

There are somewhat wiggly boundaries inside the largest counties — Mecklenburg, Wake, and Forsyth — though it’s worth noting that Wake and Mecklenburg must be split, as both counties have populations larger than a single congressional district. Kudos to the legislators for making the obvious step of including one district entirely inside both counties.

The map is— from a partisan perspective — a major improvement on the previous gerrymander, and is advertised as likely to elect an 8R-5D split rather…